EPIDEMIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS, ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF VIRAL HEPATITIS A AND E IN ZIBO CITY FROM 2015 TO 2021

Zhenshui Huang¹, Qinqin Xu¹, Xi Meng¹, Zhuang Miao¹, Gang Fang¹, Shuling Li^2*

Objective:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis A and E in Zibo City from 2015-2021, thus providing a scientific basis for evaluating and developing prevention and control strategies for hepatitis A and E.

Methods: A descriptive epidemiological method was utilized to statistically analyze the data of patients with hepatitis A and E in Zibo City from 2015 to 2021. A seasonal auto regression integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was run to predict the future incidence of hepatitis A and E.

Results: From 2015 to 2021, a total of 160 cases of hepatitis A and 302 cases of hepatitis E were reported in Zibo, with annual average incidence rates of 0.248/100,000 and 0.468/100,000, respectively. Both conditions were epidemic, but not significantly cyclical and seasonal. More men developed hepatitis A and E than women, indicating a significant difference in gender statistics (P<0.05). Hepatitis A is more prevalent among young adults and middle-aged and elderly people, 48.75% of whom are aged between 45 and 60, while most cases of hepatitis E also occur in these groups, with 75% aged between 40 and 65 years. In terms of occupation, both hepatitis A and E are predominantly found among farmers, retired people and domestic and non-working people. By the seasonal ARIMA model, it was predicted that the incidence of hepatitis A and E will remain relatively stable over the next two years, with an estimated rate of less than 1 per 100,000.

Conclusion: Zibo reported relatively stable incidence rates of hepatitis A and E from 2015 to 2021. The seasonal ARIMA model was a good predictor of short-term incidence trends, and can be combined with actual epidemiological characteristics to formulate scientific prevention and control strategies.