ESTIMATING THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENTAL PREVENTIVE ACTIONS ON CONTROL OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN SIX COUNTRIES

Mahsuk Taylan¹, Cengizhan Sezgi¹, Nazan Bayram¹, Füsun Fakili¹, Alper Şimşek¹, Hasan Taylan² 

¹Gaziantep University Faculty of Medicine Pulmonology Department, Gaziantep, Turkey - ²Middle East Technical University, Civil Engineering Department. Ankara, Turkey

Background: In this study, we aimed to assess effectiveness of the major preventive measures to control of COVID-19 pandemic in six countries

Methods: Case numbers and intervention times of countries documented by the World Health Organization were used. A natural estimation plot (M0) was constructed for the initial period with no interventions. Estimation models (M1, 2, 3, etc.) to reach the threshold number of cases (5000 cases/day) were calculated for each intervention. The effectiveness of intervention was measured by the magnitude of displacement of its prediction plot to the right of the M0 plot.

Results: In the absence of interventions (M0 model), Turkey had the earliest threshold time (26.81 days), whereas France had the longest (58.72 days). Event-specific effect size was the largest for suspension of formal education in all countries, except for Italy (0.03). The effect size of closing the schools was the largest in Iran (16.52) and France (6.75) and the least in Spain (0.45) and Italy (0.03). Turkey (3.82) and the UK (6.07) had a medium effect size. The closure of workplaces had the largest effect size in the UK (4.27) and Italy (4.20). A recommendation to stay at home policy had the lowest impact in the UK (0.58). A second increase was noted in the case trend in Iran after lifting the containment measures. 

Conclusions: Major interventions are effective and should be adopted early to achieve a higher health impact; however premature easing of restrictions can lead to a loss in controlling the spread of pandemic.